yo Zigs

What do you think of Ethereum?

I have no thoughts on it. Used to mine it a few years ago and made some money off of it but I've been out of the crypto loop since then

I'm going to buy shares in Cameco. I asked my dad about it and it turns out he bought shares in the company a year ago. I also mentioned it to a Canadian boomer and he thinks it is a good investment. I think our elders have great wisdom.

Cameco is my biggest holding Ive been in it since Oct 2022. They will get a pump if construction of plants ever starts due to owning half of westinghouse. But thier primary business of mining uranium is interesting. So basically people have been burning through stockpiles of uranium for a few decades and consumption has exceeded mine supply for a while. Due to a combo of downlblending of weapons from Russia and USA (this is now over and has been for a bit) and when Japan shut down all their reactors after fukashima. They had multi-year contracts for their supply so they started reselling that on the market. So there were large stockpiles that were being consumed and it drove price low enough that mines became unprofitable and closed down. But the market has tightened seemingly and the price of U308 has gone up quite a bit as some recontracting for long term supply from miners has occurred. But it is still below consumption. So whenever stockpiles are low enough that utilities start restocking rather than destocking there will likely be another step up in the U308 price. This is aside from any additional demand from newbuilds but Dissident is right that that is a very very long term prospect. In the mean time Japan is restarting many of those reactors so they are flipping back from selling contracted pounds to buying to restock. Downside of Cameco is for the next couple years all of their mine supply is contracted below the current spot price. But the upside is they have some older contracts that will roll over into much higher prices. Also they have a potential expansion of one of their tier 1 mines as well as quite a few shuttered tier 2 mines that can come back when prices rise.

They also have some conversion business but it is small relative to their other operations, but the conversion price is insanely high right now. Also they likely will get incentivised to expand capacity soon. Russia is the dominant supplier of conversion and enrichment and until very recently there were waivers on russian conversion and enrichment because there is very little alternative. But recently congress passed something that banned it although gave the ability for utilities that couldn't source alternative supply the ability to apply for a waiver. Russia then retaliated by doing basically the same thing saying the exporter couldn't export to America unless they got a waiver. And recently the only ship that had been sending enriched uranium from st Petersburg to America left the port supposedly with enriched uranium onboard. This probably creates some musical chairs where russian conversion and enrichment goes to china and Chinese comes to America, but still it likely creates the demand for American services even if they arent cost competitive with china and russia. Because nuclear fuel is a very small part of the cost of a reactor so they arent that price sensitive here especially if the concern is security of supply.

Another plus for cameco is pre the ukraine war a lot of eastern and central European countries that were previously behind the iron curtain had all of their fuel services and reactor services done by Rosatom the russian supplier. But since then many places such as Bulgaria, Poland, Ukraine, Czhechia have replaced those with a Cameco/Westinghouse.

But i would say since cameco is fully contracted for a couple years their earnings could be somewhat boring for the next bit. I think it will be hard for them to have an earnings surprise to the upside, so earnings are probably basically priced in. I don't want to sell because I think its a good play over the next couple years. But the AI impact if it ever happens is decades away. So one thing I like to do is when there is a pump from some big tech company talking about using nuclear to power data centers. If the price goes up enough in a day that there is a very high implied volatility then sell some longer dated covered calls. Then eventually the price will cool back down as people get bored or people sell it down to what makes more sense for the near term uranium mining, then buy back the covered calls and repeat later. Because its very hard for anything to actually affect the near term prospects of the company other than something like a mine flood. So any news story is a good fade because any news you hear about today cant impact earnings for at least a decade.

This is the year of Cameco and Microsoft. I'm buying Cameco and Microsoft.

It's time to start selling Bitcoin if you haven't been already. This Trump coin is going to be a fiasco